The View from Japan

Here in Tokyo, spring is in the air, and the cherry blossoms are drifting down softly from the trees, evoking the pathos of transient things immortalized in so much Japanese art. This can only mean one thing--I'm in the wrong freaking country if I want to see some play-off hockey. (Unless, of course, I'm in the mood for a thrilling encounter between the Nikko Ice Bucks and the Seibu Prince Rabbits).

While I'll be back in hockey-viewing territory in a couple of weeks, that two weeks could be just enough time for my beloved Colorado Avalanche to get bored onto the golf course by the Minnesota Wild. If so, that would mean I'll go at least seven years without seeing a meaningful game involving my favourite team.

Ah well, on with my predictions, which I'm afraid are rehashing Phoff's picks for the most part.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Detroit vs. Nashville

Detroit has a habit of choking against unfancied opposition at this time of the year, and Nashville are certainly as unfancied as they come. But logic dictates that the Red Wings are superior to Nashville in all areas, on and off the ice, and that it's going to be a short series. I remember watching the Wings brush aside the Flames with ease last year, and last year's Flames were, I think, a better team than this year's Predators, while the Wings are much the same, except for a few more gray hairs, so...

My pick: Red Wings in 5.

San Jose vs. Calgary

The hottest team in hockey and a strong Cup contender against the enigmatic Flames, who gave up a ridiculous number of goals this season despite having an elite goalie and some top-notch defensemen and decent defensive forwards. I expected Calgary to step it up in the post-season last year, and they didn't. Mike Keenan or not, I don't see that much has changed this year, so it could be another quick exit for Jarome and the gang. Nabokov's been much better than Kiprusoff this season, the likes of Huselius and Tanguay will find it tough against the physical Sharks, and the Sharks are less dependent on Thornton for offense than the Flames are on Iginla.

My pick: Sharks in 5.

Minnesota vs. Colorado

Phoff doesn't know what kind of character the Avalanche have, having not seen much of them this year. Well, I've followed them closely all year long, and I don't really know either. This is one unpredictable team. From one period to the next, never mind one game to the next, you never know what they're going to give you. They did a great job getting into the play-offs after a slew of injuries, and the much-maligned Theodore can make a strong case for being the team MVP after carrying them in January and February, but there are still a lot of unanswered questions:

Can Theodore keep it up in the post-season?
Can Forsberg's groin/foot/appendix/whatever hold up to the rigors of play-off hockey?
Will Ryan Smyth rediscover his goalscoring touch?
Will the Avs' Hall-of-Fame roster of forwards turn around the 28th-ranked PP in the NHL?
Can they overcome their bad habit of giving up the first goal in almost every game?

If the answer to all these questions is yes, the Avs could win the Cup. If not, the Wild's superior coaching, tight defensive play, youth, and ability to protect a lead will see them off in round one.

I hate to say it, but my pick: Wild in 6.

Anaheim vs. Dallas

Underwhelming post-season play has become the Stars' specialty, now that they no longer have Oil to beat on every year in the first round. Against a Ducks team that came on strong in the second half of the season and has all its ducks in a row, so to speak (with the exception of Corey Perry), another lame first-year exit is on the cards for Marty Turco and co. Scoring could be a concern for Anaheim further down the road, but with their goaltending and defense, they shouldn't need to score too many in this series. Dallas's offensive limitations were painfully evident last year against Vancouver, and Brad Richards isn't enough to take them to the next level.

My pick: Ducks in 6.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Montreal vs. Boston

Youth, speed, offense, great special teams, a promising young goalie, and a system that the players have bought into--the Habs have a lot going for them. Meanwhile, I'm not sure how Boston even made it to the play-offs, given their negative goal-difference, injuries, lack of depth, and mediocre goaltending. Everything, including Montreal's 8-0 record in the regular season, favours le Tricolore. But I have a sneaking suspicion that the fact that Boston has nothing to lose while the overachieving Habs will be under intense pressure from the Montreal media could make this into a series. And, as other talented young teams getting their first taste of the post-season such as the 1995 Nordiques or last year's Penguins found out, the play-offs are a whole different ball game, and a painful first-round exit is often part of the learning curve for potential future champions.

So my official pick is: Habs in 4

But a little voice in the back of my head says: Bruins in 7.

Pittsburgh vs. Ottawa

Everyone's saying the same thing about this series, and I don't have anything new to add. The Senators have been awful in the second half of the season, their goaltending situation is a mess, and now they have some key injuries. The Penguins got some valuable play-off experience last year and should be better prepared this time round, and having dealt with the absence of Crosby, they've demonstrated some strength in depth. The only real question mark is defense. I don't think the Penguins are good enough in goal or at the blue line to win the Cup, but they should dispose of the Senators.

My pick: Pens in 6.

Washington vs. Philadelphia

The Flyers are another team that started strong and have come apart a bit in the second half. And while Robert Esche might no longer be around, goaltending still figures to be a concern. The Caps, on the other hand, pulled off a deadline coup in getting Huet for almost nothing. He should be solid for them, and with momentum and Ovechkin on their side, they're ready for a good play-off run.

My pick: Caps in 6.

New Jersey vs. New York

It's always tough to write off the Devils, with Brodeur in goal and their history of play-off success. But when I look at their roster, I just don't see a whole lot going on--it's a workman-like bunch of players who will be tough to beat, but who pale in comparison to the likes of Jagr, Gomez, and Chris Drury, whose true worth becomes evident in the post-season. As long as Lundqvist holds his own against Brodeur, the Rangers should have enough to win this one.

My pick: Rangers in 7.