Foresight & Hindsight

I cannot make Phoff's claims to genius, after going a barely respectable 5 for 8 in my first-round predictions, but will nevertheless forge boldly ahead with my thoughts on the second round. In the first round, I was guilty of seriously underestimating the Senators, Red Wings, and Rangers. I was also surprised that the series in the West were not tighter - three of the four ended up being fairly one-sided, with the top four teams all going through; it was far from the crapshoot that many predicted.

In the case of Ottawa and Detroit, I wrote them off based on their habit of having great regular seasons only to make early exits to inferior teams come play-off time. Both have put a stop to that trend, at least for now. The Senators were particularly impressive in disposing of the potent Penguins with relative ease; perhaps all those years of choking will actually prove to be a blessing this time around - despite how good they look on paper, it's hard to take them seriously given their history, which could help relieve the burden of expectations and allow them to play with less pressure. Detroit were impressive, too, but Calgary's awful performances away from the Saddledome didn't exactly make it difficult for them.

One of the intriguing storylines of the play-offs is usually which goalies will go on a hot streak and carry their team, but this year there was no Cam Ward or Dwayne Roloson to propel a weaker team into the later rounds. This time around we are getting to see how some highly touted younger goalies - Luongo, Lundqvist, Miller - will fare against proven play-off veterans like Hasek, Brodeur, and Giguere. It will be interesting to see if one of these younger players will seize the occasion this year to establish their dominance, or if the old guard still has enough left for now. (On the subject of goalies, I'd like to take this moment to honour Mikka Kiprusoff and Marty Turco with the Ron Tugnutt Award for Valiant Effort on Behalf of Losers.* Both of them deserved a much better fate; if goaltending really was everything, their teams would still be alive.)

Another interesting subplot is the performance of players whose ability to lead a team in the play-offs has been questioned in the past. As the spotlight grows more intense, how will Joe Thornton, post-Pittsburgh Jagr, the Senators' big guns, and Pavel Datsyuk perform? So far they've looked good, but it takes more than one round to prove yourself. With most of the NHL's top regular-season scorers already on the golf course, the play of the few remaining offensive superstars could go a long way to deciding who wins the Cup.

On to my predictions:

Sharks vs. Red Wings
Both these teams turned in outstanding first-round performances and look like they have reached peak performance level at the right time. Nevertheless, one of them has to lose, and I continue to believe that the aging Red Wings backline will be their Achilles' heel. The Sharks' speedy, physical forwards won't find it as easy as it was against the Predators, but over the course of the series they'll have edge. My pick: Sharks in 7.

Ducks vs. Canucks
Vancouver is basically Minnsota with a better goalie - they play good team defense and are pretty disciplined, but are short on attacking threat. The Ducks are superior in every aspect of their game, and while it would be nice for my newly acquired hometown team to go deep in the post-season, I can't see it happening; the Ducks will dispose of the Canucks with almost as much ease as they dispatched the Wild. Markus Naslund and the Vancouver power-play were inept in round one, and that won't change against the Ducks' grade-A D. My pick: Ducks in 6 (only because Luongo might steal a couple of games for Vancouver).

Sens vs. Devils
This one seems like the toughest to call in the second round. The Senators looked awfully good against Pittsburgh, but the Penguin's massive inexperience and lack of a money goaltender have to be taken into account. The Devils, on the other hand, have oodles of experience and possibly the best money goalie in the history of the game. Tampa Bay got to him in the early games, but Brodeur found his focus when it was needed and figures to be ready for this series. The Senators' have explosive players on offense, but the Devils are the type of team that can neutralize them, and defensively New Jersey probably has an edge. Which is why I pick: Devils in 6.

Sabres vs. Rangers
The Rangers surprised me with their first-round dominance, but again the weakness of the opposition has to be taken into account. The Sabres are one of the strongest teams in the NHL and have the depth, speed, intensity, and discipline that it takes to win it all. The Rangers don't strike me as a genuine contender, although a massive performance by Jagr could tip the balance in their favour. The match-up of two of the game's best young goalies will be interesting. My pick: Sabres in 6.

*In honour of his 70-save performance in a regular season game for the abject Nordiques at Boston Garden way back when.