Prognosticating the West

A year after the offer was originally made, I am at last taking Phoff up on the invitation to add my two cents to this blog. I'll wade right in with my first-round predictions. Despite the absence of my beloved Avs, this year's play-offs promise to be intriguing, especially in the Western Conference, where I will begin.

Red Wings vs. Flames

The Red Wings have made a habit in recent years of flaming out (so to speak) in the first round against supposedly weaker opposition, most recently the Oilers. I don't think they'll be taking the Flames as lightly as they may have taken the Oil, but they still have to contend with the aging population problem among their goalie and defensemen. Their forward group has gotten younger, but not necessarily better, now that Yzerman and Shanahan are gone, but is that enough? The Flames, on the other hand, are, I think, much better than their eighth-place finish suggests. They have the goalie, the D, the grit, the experience, and the superstar necessary to go deep in the play-offs. The big questions are can they win on the road - recent form suggests yes - and will Tanguay turn in the kind of performance that won Game 7 of the Stanley Cup final against the Devils or will he fade from view, as he has a bad habit of doing? My pick: Flames in 7.

Ducks vs. Wild

The Wild are a tough team to break down, and unlike past years have a bit of offensive punch in Gaborik and Demitra, but I just don't see them getting past the Ducks, who showed their play-off mettle last year and should be even better this year. The Ducks have the edge over the Wild in every aspect of their game. Provided the Ducks get the goaltending from Giguere, and Pronger and Niedermayer are injury free, they are serious Cup contenders. My pick: Ducks in 6.

Canucks vs. Stars

This one figures to be a pretty low-scoring affair, with two solid defensive teams and excellent goalies ... at least in the regular season. Goaltending - the Canuck's Achille's heel in play-offs past - is likely to be decide this one, and I'd put my money on Luongo to outperform Turco, who flatters to deceive around this time of year. I've seen a few Canucks games recently, and their D and overall team system seem to be extremely solid, and when they do make the occasional mistake, Luongo slams the door. I don't see that changing in the play-offs; the question marks are the form of Naslund, who's been lousy of late, and whether the Sedin girls - uh, twins - can be dominant in the play-offs. I have my doubts, but still think Vancouver will win this one before going out in the next round. My pick: Canucks in 6.

Predators vs. San Jose

That a series like this is happening in the first round proves how strong the Western Conference is. Both of these teams are legitimate Cup contenders, although I like the Sharks' chances better. They're big and tough, with excellent depth in attack and a goalie who can carry the team. I think the Sharks have too much firepower up front and that they will outmuscle and wear down the Predators' smaller forwards. And I think Nabokov is a better money goalie than Vokoun. There's one wild card in this series, though: the Foppa factor. Years of watching the Avalanche have shown me time and again that Forsberg can single-handedly make the difference in a game, if he's healthy. If he outplays Thornton, then the Preds have a chance. My pick: Sharks in 7.