The Battle of Alberta has an interesting post regarding how important (or, as Matt puts it, "less important") amateur scouting will be relative to pro scouting in this new CBA:
The key to a GM's success in all sports leagues, but especially where there is a salary cap, is simply to underpay as many of your players as possible by as much as possible. That's a bit glib, but it's another way of saying this: you need players who will outperform their contracts. Ideally, you sign young players to 2/3/4 year contracts just before they make The Leap; you sign experienced players after abnormally poor seasons when their market value is depressed; etc.
Restricted free agents help your team accomplish this, as the restrictions allow you to sign them to contracts for below their market value. Let's say I'm Kevin Lowe, in negotiations with Ales Hemsky, and that every GM in the league agrees that Hemsky's performance will be worth $4M next season. I can pay Hemsky up to $4M and be getting a "fair deal". John Ferguson Jr., however, cannot. For him to be getting a fair deal, he can only offer Hemsky a contract for [($4M) - (the $$ value of the draft picks he has to surrender to me)]. There is a ton of room for argument on what that "$$ value" should be, but it is some number greater than zero.
It's a Moneyball issue, in my mind, where you sign players who are pulling in the best numbers while still developing and if any player wants more, you get rid of him.
In my mind, there are only a few players in the league who can command "franchise" status. A franchise player is one of two types: men who people will come out in droves to watch even if their own team is shit, or; a person who can win you championships. Rocket was both, as was Guy. But, honestly, how many players have that kind of pull any more? Maybe Iginla. Ovechkin is in the former group, Lecavailier in the other. Toss in Crosby, Thornton, Pronger, Kovalchuk and, now, Staal and Briere. Maybe a few more.
Outside of that elite group, who can be identified as while amateurs by an old lady watching junior hockey on her local cable channel, many of the other players on the league have a parity which has been unmatched in the history of the league. Due to wondrous advances in training and coaching techniques, the average Joe in today's NHL is far superior to the role player of 20 years back.
Thus, if some decent player has one good season in the final year of his contract -- a player who is well-liked, works hard and can pop a few in, but, yet, isn't a superstar -- rather than burden a team with a hefty contract, it might be wise for a GM to ship him off for a younger player of similar skill set but who hasn't developed yet and who could play three more seasons at half the salary.
A good example would be Martin St Louis, who had one terrific season and was rewarded with a big contract. He followed up with a decent season, but likely could have been traded for a solid defenseman or -- dare I say it -- a goaltender, in addition to a prospect or three, and the team would have been sitting pretty. The Bolts could have gotten away with it because they already had in their midst two other superstars, one who also made rich during the off-season, and the other who was still being underpaid for this year.
Or take Jonathon Cheechoo as another example. Here was a tough and talented winger who had loads of potential but wasn't accomplishing anything until Joe Thornton arrived, and then went out to win the Richard Trophy. If he was in his contract year, GM Doug Wilson might be tempted to give Cheechoo top dollar in order to preserve "chemistry" or some other bullshit. However, if the Sharks had a well-researched pro-scouting staff, Wilson might be able to bag a young, as-yet-unproven power forward who simply needs a chance with a superstar centre, in plus a couple of other prospects or veteran players looking to wind down. Cheechoo's great, but I wouldn't open the vault on him, not like the "have" franchises pre-2005.
In other words, most players who aren't superstars in the NHL are still quality athletes who can do much as what other players can do, given the right circumstances and linemates. And so, I agree that a pro-scouting staff will be far more valuable in the "new" NHL than an amateur staff.
